So What Is The Stock Market Doing – Really – My Opinion

By John Pisanchik

So if you haven’t done so already, you have to ask, “Is the Stock Market still in a Bear Market?” Well in my opinion it it, and here is why I think so.

First of all, we have not had a real bear market, I mean the kind that make legends, for decades. So the large number of people involved in the equities market have experience only Bull Markets. If you look at the S&P 500, we had a high last year of about 1575, and not that long a go we hit a low of about 675. WOW. And during that time there were important stocks that lost over 90% of their value. In no uncertain terms, the market was pummeled. OK, so fine the market got pummeled, now you may be thinking it’s time to go up!, Well you are half right. It is time for the market to go up, but we are still in a bear market. The most likely upside objectives in the market (S&P 500) are: 1) approx 1020, 2) approx 1125, 3) approx 1230. We are currently in the 850 area. The appropriate thing is to examine the market behavior at each objective to determine if it has enough steam to get to the next objective.

If you look at those objectives, you could say thats a hell of a run, the bear market has to be over. No way! It is exactly this type of run that lures people in, and pow, the market goes down with a vengance. That is what a bear market is all about.

There is an expression on Wall Street, “Never confuse brains with a Bull Market!”

Filed under: Market Opinions

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