By John Pisanchik

The last couple of days, the market has been marking time, after the great break out of the 955 level to the upside. The market will need to digest that break out, and as long as it holds the gains, it should move higher. We  are in the middle of summer, so we may continue to mark time until vacation season comes to a close. I will not be updating this every day unless something significant happens. The near tern should continue sideways for a little longer. Happy Trading.

By John Pisanchik

The market today broke out of the double top and held it’s gain. With a close of 976.29 on the S&P Cash Index, the market is now poised for a rally that can go significantly higher. There is a possibility that the market may test the 955 level over the next few days, however if there is no test, the market can have an explosive rally. A short term objective is the 1000 level in the cash index. Depending on the strength of the market we could see that tomorrow. Happy Trading.

By John Pisanchik

The market marked time in today’s session and did not break through and hold above the 955 Level in the S&P Cash Index.  This is an important level because the market is at a double top now and any market hesitation could spark a reaction lower. Therefore it is important for the market to move higher fast. If it hangs here too long then a trading range will have been defined. The trend following indicators are contradicting themselves so there is no clear trend upwards at this point. Happy Trading.

By John Pisanchik

The market continued to rally as expected, to a high of 956.53, with a close of 954.58 in the S&P Cash index. This puts the market at a double top from a technical perspective, so today (7/22) will be very important since if it hesitates, sellers could come in to move it lower. I am still looking at the 2 possibilities for the market. One is that the 955 level does not hold and the next leg of the rally starts, and second, the resistance level here holds and we have defined a trading range with 885 on the bottom and 955 on the top. Today will give more clues to that. Happy Trading.

By John Pisanchik

Today was a significant rally that may have reversed the market. It was significantly stronger than expected and at this point there are 2 likely directions for the market. The first is that the market is not going up or down in any real way and is in a trading range. That trading range is a large one with 885 on the bottom and 950 on the top side. The second option is that the rally will continue and the next leg will begin. This will be more the case if the S&P Cash Index trades and stays above the 955 level. If that occurs, we should start trending higher.

In this market, expect the unexpected. Happy Trading.

By John Pisanchik

This week ended decisively down. The market internals deteriorated each day and the indicators are all pointing down. At this point you should be positioned to take advantage of a down market. The short term objective is the 845 to 850 level. On an intermediate basis, we could get to the 750 level. A lot of damage can occur to individual issues in an environment like that, which is why I am saying that you need to be positioned for it.

I would expect that next week will bring more momentum to the downside and some exceleration to the downward progress. Happy Weekend, and Happy Trading.

By John Pisanchik

Hello everyone. This will be the first post for a couple of weeks. This is because my comments described the market action that we saw in the past couple of weeks, and I just did not want to sound repetitive.  Having said that,  the S&P Cash index is still in a trading range with 930 on the top and 885 on the low side.  I still am of the opinion that the market will trade down, but it may remain in this range just a little longer. The averages are turning, with the short term averages pointing down at this time. The key level to watch on the downside is the 885 level. That needs to break, and the index cannot trade and stay above it on a test. Once we break and fail the test of that key level, I will publish the short term and intermediate term objectives. Happy Trading

By John Pisanchik

The market today opened flat and traded in a narrow range. At the end of the day it rallied to close at 919.14 in the S&P Cash index. The question here is this: was this just the day traders squaring up therir shorts for the weekend, or the start of a rally.
The plus side, the 9 and 20 day moving averages held in nicely and gave support under the 910 level. That is important because the averages that I watch on the daily chart are all in an uptrend. If this is valid indicator, we should start moving higher soon. The word of caution is that we are still below the 935 resistance level and we really need to blow through that soon and hold the new higher ground.
If the rally on Friday’s close was a higher quality rally, i.e. not just the day traders covering, we should expect some follow through on Monday. We may even test the 935 level. I would feel more positive if we finally get through 935 and hold. Happy Trading.

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By John Pisanchik

Well today was an important rally day. I would have liked to have seen this rally yesterday, but the rally did occur and I’ll take it. The run up today should be close to re-establishing the up trend (which started 3/6/09) and was broken on April 20, 2009. Now there is something very important that has to happen here, and that is follow through. Tomorrow’s market (4/30/2009) must continue this rally, and we need move up through 885. The reason is that there is a good amount of overhead resistence here. This is a big one at approx 885 in the S&P Cash. So tomorrow must get through that and hold it on any intraday testing. If the market get above this level and holds it, then the rally should have a short term objective of approx 910. There is a band of resistance between 910 and 930, so the market will have some work at those levels.
What happens if there is no follow through tomorrow (4/30/2009)? Well the re-establishment of this uptrend is fragile, so a failure tomorrow would point to the rally fizzling out. But lets not talk fizzle before it happens, either way, tommorrow and Friday should be exciting days in the market.

By John Pisanchik

In my weekend analysis, I stated that the rally we saw late last week needed to hold the 850 level on a retest. That retest has started. We opened today on the weak side, rallied, then gave up the gains during the day. The Cash S&P closed at approximately 857 and we are probably going to test the 850 level on an intraday basis tomorow. A close below 853, is bearish, and weakness, should start to mount as the week goes on. If the level holds, then at some point the rally should continue. We are really at a crossroad here over the next 48 hours. I still am bearish, generally speaking, and I would be very cautious of any rallies that the market experiences. Happy trading.