By John Pisanchik

The market continued it’s rally through the important 1125 resistance level and quickly moved higher. Today’s move invalidated any forecast to the downside in the near term. The rally will probably continue to the top of the range, around the 1150 level in the S&P Cash Index. At that point, we will need to see, by market action, it we have just defined a trading range or not. Have a great weekend and…… Happy Trading.

By John Pisanchik

The market experienced a rally these last few days and I again caution any feelings that the rally will continue. I did say a few days ago that there could be a head fake to the upside, and that is what I still believe we are seeing here. I do believe it is close to being over. There is a good amount of resistance at the 1120 level. The market may chop around here for another couple of days, but after that chop,  a resumption of the downswing will be in order. Happy Trading.

By John Pisanchik

The market got a bounce here with support coming in off the 20 day moving average and is now sandwiched in between the 50 day (1108 level) and 100 day (1096 level) moving averages. The market has not yet validated that it will go higher from these levels mainly because it has not moved much above the 1100 level on the S&P Cash Index. That is a very important resistance level and, once broken to the upside should move rapidly away from it to the upside. This has not happened, closing at 1104.49, and as a result makes me suspect of a continued rally. The market activity in the early part of the coming week will confirm the rally, or not. So at this point the call is to wait and see what the market does on Monday and Tuesday.  In the mean time, enjoy the weekend. Happy Trading.

By John Pisanchik

Well the 1100 level in the S&P Cash Index did not hold and weakness is now coming into the market. The market closed on a couple of important support levels so a bounce is possible tomorrow. If there is no bounce and the market closes below 1086 on the S&P Cash Index on Wed., then Thursday and Friday should pick up steam to the downside. Support could  come in at the 1075 level, but I am looking for the market to get to 1025 level later next week. Happy Trading.

By John Pisanchik

Well we had a rally from the lows of last week and I issue a caution to it. Do not get sucked into market strength that can quickly dissipate. Here is why I am so cautious. The rally that we have just seen hit an important Fibonacci retracement at the 1108 to 1110 level. In addition to that, there is resistance coming in at those levels from the 50 moving average and the 1100 level overall is an important level to hold. In order for this to be a “real” rally, the market needs to continue higher immediately and without hesitation. If it stalls here, then the likely hood is that the next leg downward will begin sson. There are a lot of cross currents here and expect lots of volatility over the next few days. Do not put too much emphasis on the individual days, but instead look at what is going on over several days. Time will always smooth out volatility in that a trend is a trend. If the market stalls here, and you have not hedged yourself, take advantage of this temporary strength to put on a hedge. Happy Trading.

By John Pisanchik

The Market is in a short term consolidation phase after beginning what I believe will be the start of a decline. There was a significant resistance level that held in at 1075 in the S&P Cash Index. The consolidation could last for a few more days before anything of importance occurs. If the market does get above the 1075 level, on a closing basis, then look for resistance to come in at the 1092 level and then again at 1100. If this is a consolidation before a decline, there should be a head fake or two, to the upside. Be very cautious of any market strength that comes in at this time. The likely hood is that it will be short live. The only way I will change my opinion of that is if we get above 1110 on the S&P Cash Index, and hold above that in a consolidation.

My original estimates of where the market is heading (published about 3 weeks ago) are 1079, 1020, 961, followed by 902, 847, 800 and finally 767. We already fell below the 1079 objective and have been consolidating below it. Once this consolidation is over and we break lower, look for the same type of market action just below the 1020 level.

Happy Trading.

By John Pisanchik

I am writing this from beautiful Scottsdale, Arizona, where I attended the National Convention for my home business, Reliv International.

Well, the market tested the 1100, in the S&P Cash Index, last Wed, failed, and promptly started it’s slide. posting a low on Friday of 1044.5 on the S&P Cash Index. The Friday close could have misled some traders into thinking the market reversed. Well today the market said “I did not reverse, Friday was a Head Fake.”

In the short term, expect the market to trade lower with a short term objective of 1020. We will have to see how it trades when it gets there. If it breaks, then expect it to trade to 961 on an intermediate basis.

Here are some additional intermediate objectives in the S&P Cash Index: 902, 847, 800 and finally 767.

Happy Trading

By John Pisanchik

The battered trader fell to his knees and cried out to his Lord, ” Lord what do I do?” And behold a voice came to him that said “HEDGE THY SELF!”

Well that’s the strategy at this point. Hedge your longs. The very important 1100 on the S&P Cash Index held as a resistance point this week, and the market weakened. On Thursday and Friday, the market broke through and closed below the 100 day average both days with Friday seeing even lower lows. Since the market is in the vicinity of the 100 day average, we may see some support come in here. Use any market strength to either hedge or close your longs. Here are the short term and intermediate term objectives to the downside. We already broke 1079, the next major support level is 1020. If the market is going to run out of steam to the downside, it could be there. At the very least it may cause the market to have a short term bear market rally. The next major point to the downside is 961, followed by 902, 847, 800 and finally 767. These are all points in the S&P Cash Index. The strategy is to see how the market reacts at each one of these points. If each point is broken to the downside, then the next level mentioned becomes the next objective. As you can see, there is the potential for a butt kicking decline here, so that is why, at the very least you should hedge yourself. Happy Trading.

By John Pisanchik

Hello everyone, this is my first commentary for 2010. My last one was for Dec 31, 2009, and what I said there still holds true now. The market has lost it’s momentum, and what is really important here is that the market has hit a very important Fibonacci retracement. That really puts a substantial risk to the downside in place. Another important thing is this, since Jan 1, the market tried to rally. It made new highs and then fell back below the top of the trading range that was in place. The fall off was hard and the market never recovered. In fact it fell below all the critical support levels that were in place.

What should be the strategy now for the intermediate term? Well, the market is set up for a correction. If it happens, it will be substantial. So pay close attention to what is going on now. The 1100 level is a very important resistance level in the S&P Cash Index. The market fell below that the other day and was not able to get back above it. If after continued attempts to break it to the upside, it fails, then place a hedge on your portfolio. Happy Trading.

By John Pisanchik

Happy New Year to all my friends. The year ended with an interesting point to note. It is that the market completed a 5/8’s Fibonacci Retracement off of the March lows. This is significant because a reaction from such a retracement is probable. In other words, the market is susceptible to a retracement downwards at this point. This could retrace back to 900 on the S&P Cash Index. There is a lot of damage that could occur in such a downswing. The thing to watch is the relative strength of the individual stock issues. If the market does turn down, you may want to determine the relative strength of your stock vs the S&P Cash Index. If the stock looks worst than the index, lighten up on it, but if it looks stronger, hold on to it.
I hope you had a great 2009, and I wish you great trading success in 2010. Happy Trading.