Wednesday, June 24th, 2009 at
3:58 pm
By John Pisanchik
The market’s net change today was up it is still set up for a decline. The price action of the S&P Cash Index is respecting the moving averages. It met resistance at the 9 day average today, and closed literally on the 50 day average. The 9 day has turned down and is below the 20 day. Tomorrow we may get some support on the 50 day, but I would be surprised is it held. I fully expect this market to trade lower, whether it is tomorrow or the next day, that’s where it is heading. Once we settle below the 50 day average, I will start to post short term and intermediate term objectives. Happy Trading.
Wednesday, June 24th, 2009 at
7:58 am
By John Pisanchik
The market held in today just under the 50 day moving average. It may rest here for a day or two, and there is a good chance it will try to get above that average. Today it is at 899 on the S&P Cash Index. This also coincides with the 900 resistance level, so be prepared for some choppiness at that level. The market may chop at these levels for the next few days. So we may be trading between 890 and 905 today. Once the effects of this range wear off, we should start to trade lower, but this market can hang here for a short while. Happy Trading
Monday, June 22nd, 2009 at
10:39 pm
By John Pisanchik
Today the market finally broke to the downside. With a close of 893.04 in the S&P Cash, it broke the 50 day moving average and should increase momentum to the downside. I would not be shocked if we are below 850 this week. The 100 day moving average should be a target also at 843. Some support should come in at that level, but the quality of that support is not something I would bet on as a turning point. The market will go lower than that when all is said and done. The market is now decisively down. Happy Trading
Friday, June 19th, 2009 at
7:34 am
By John Pisanchik
The market found some footing today and rallied weakly. It is possible that the S&P Cash will test the 930 level on Friday. I wold not get excited about this if it happens. The dynamics of what happened here are as follows: The market broke out of a resistance area 2 weeks ago, then fell back below that resistance level. This negated the breakout and a test of that breakout could occur now. If we rally today, don’t get excited because it will probably be short lived. Happy Trading.
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Thursday, June 18th, 2009 at
7:34 am
By John Pisanchik
The market found some support as it approached 900 with an intraday low of 903.78. The day was a lower day with the high, low and close all lower than Tuesday. The weakness should continue, with support showing up as the S&P Cash approaches 900 again on Thursday. Thursday’s market should be a repeat of yesterday, and that is a bit lower. I don’t think this will pick up steam on the downside until 900 is broken, and then 885. Happy Trading.
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Wednesday, June 17th, 2009 at
8:29 am
By John Pisanchik
The market continued weak and there should be follow through on Wed to the downside. Some intraday support should be seen at the 900 level, however, I do expect that to break at some point today. If the weakness accelerates today we could see it decline to around 890. There is support at 892 which is where the 50 day moving average is. A close below that today would add momentum to the move going forward. Happy Trading.
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Monday, June 15th, 2009 at
5:27 pm
By John Pisanchik
Today the market opened weak and never turned back. It broke through the support levels that should have held if this was going higher. So today’s decline should keep weakness in the market for most of this week. In the short term, the market should trade below the 900 level soon, this could happen on Tues or Wed of this week. the 900 level should offer some support on the way down. In the near term, we should also see a run at the 885 level. The speed at which we get there will be an indication of how the market will decline over the next few weeks. Overall, the break out we saw 2 weeks ago, is not really a breakout, but a head fake. Be prepared for a down market. Happy Trading.
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Thursday, June 11th, 2009 at
5:59 pm
By John Pisanchik
The market was a bit higher today, but still unimpressive to the upside. I still feel cautious about where the market is positioned and how it is trading. If this is a bona fide rally start, it needs to move on Friday. The reluctance to move higher is a red flag in my mind. So for Friday, we need to see this market move higher and close above the 955 level. Short of that, I am still not seeing confirmation. Happy trading.
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Wednesday, June 10th, 2009 at
5:31 pm
By John Pisanchik
Today the market opened strong and fizzled. It is a bad indicator for this much awaited new leg of the rally. The light is growing dimmer each day. The market should have shown more strength then it did. Now, that is not to say, that the market cannot go higher, it means the selling is coming in at the wrong place. In this biz, you are reading clues each day about the most probable direction. Right now the market is marking time, and it should be moving. A close below 925 on Thursday will probably start a decline. Thursday’s market will bring better clues as to whether this is turning into a failed rally start. Happy Trading.
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Tuesday, June 9th, 2009 at
5:32 pm
By John Pisanchik
The market traded in a relatively narrow range, and on the intraday chart had a triple top. The daily chart has the averages still pointing higher, but the narrow range today has me a bit worried. It is possible that this is still a “resting period” after breaking through the resistance band that it did last week. However, it should have a wider price spread now on an intraday basis than what has been trading. This is a red flag in my mind.
In other words, the next leg of the rally still has not been validated, and until that happens, I am very cautious about this move up above 935 as potentially being a head fake. A close above 955 in the S&P Cash index on Wed would help ease my concerns. The longer we sit on the 935 area, the less likely we will move higher. So we wait for Wed’s market. Happy Trading.
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