By John Pisanchik

Today was an end to  a great week. The theme for the week was resilience. Each time the market got hit, it came back with gusto, closing the week at its highs. We are within striking distance of 935 and I would like to see us get above that straight away on Monday, and hold on any test to the downside. When we get above that level, we will start the next run towards the 1000 level, with 1007 as the Fibonacci objective. This of course is an intermediate objective.
I would expect this strength to continue into next next week, however if there is any weakness, it should be short lived. Happy Trading and have a great weekend.

By John Pisanchik

The market opened with  it’s usual style of late and took a run at the 935 objective I mentioned in yesterdays commentary. The market did not make it to that objective but did hit a high of 929.58. The resistance that I have been talking about these last 2 days finally kicked in, and took the Cash S&P back towards 900, where it found support and reversed at 901.36 to close at 907.39. The move from the lows came in the last 40 minutes of the day.

So what does this all mean? Well, I have been talking about a very good band of resistance between 910 to 935. Today it showed itself. The key at this point is whether or not the market can get through it, or give up the ghost, so to speak. I don’t think it will give up the ghost in the short term. The most likely action is that the Cash S&P will want to try, and I mean try, to trade higher. The market has been opening every day with a great pop, so this would not suprise me on Friday if that happens, but because of the way things traded off today, it may translate into a sideways to slightly down market on Friday. If the market does trade lower on Friday, pay close attention to the 885 level if it breaks below 900. If that level (885) does not hold, it could start to cause the market to build momentum to the downside. The key is that the current levels hold. So I am cautiously opimistic, but if we have a close below 885, all bets are off.

By John Pisanchik

Today was an exciting market. In yesterdays commentary I gave 3 possible outcomes for today and we got 2 of the 3 . It may not be that apparent when you look at the S&P Cash today. Yesterday I said we will need to take a look at what Asia and Europe were going to do for guidance on our market. Well the overnights actually tested the Fibonacci levels I spoke of yesterday. In fact there was a 50% retracement at 891.50 in the front month contract, and then rebounded over 900. This did the test for the cash, so when NY opened, it was already done. So on the opening, the S&P took a run at 910 and broke it. Tested it a few times and then after 1:30 moved above it and stayed there to close at 919.53.
This all is very good for continuation of the rally. There is a good amount of resistance here through 935, but the market is very being resilient. Unless something from left field happens, I would expect the market to continue higher tomorrow. The market is a little overbought here, so between that and the resistance in the band we are in, there is always the risk if some type of pull back, but nothing that should be serious. But overall, I think we are in striking distance of the 935 level. Happy trading.

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By John Pisanchik

Today’s market action was no surprise. As I pointed out in yesterday’s commentary, 900 in the Cash S&P was extremely important on the way up. The market needed to test that, and that is exactly what it did today. We did see a low of 897.34 and quickly traded back to the 900 level and then traded on either side of 900 for a while. At about 2:30PM, it tested the day’s low again and popped back above 900 where it closed at 903.80. This action may persist tomorrow, it may even test the lows again, so what happens here is important for further upward action. Now, it is possible for us to get a bit of a downdraft tomorrow. I would not necessarily be worried about it unless it goes too far and does not recover. So I am going to give you some points to watch in the event that the market does see a downward bias tomorrow. With the run up that we saw from the other day, we could see the following retracements. These levels are Fibonacci points and should be watch carefully. they are: 894,  889,  and 885 all in the S&P Cash. I would not be concerned if it trades down to 885, but there would need to be a rapid recovery from that point. So stay on guard.

Yesterday I also said that 910 was the objective on the short term basis, and we came close to that. But the important thing is that 910 to 935 is one big range of resistance. So the market can get through it, but will probably do so in a struggling manner. There are a lot of cross currents going on in the market now, and that is a normal thing considering the state of the market, and where it has come from.

Tomorrow’s market (Wed, 5/6/2009) can do one of 3 things. 1 -  simply stay in today’s range, 2 – test out the Fibonacci levels I have mentioned, or 3 – take another run at 910. I think the overnight markets will give some indication of which one it will be, so you may want to watch how Asia and Europe unfolds tonight. Happy trading.

By the way, if you like my blog, I would love it if you leave a comment. Also, If you like my commentaries, leave your name and e-mail address at the right of this page, and I will be able to let you know if any important developments occur during the day.

By John Pisanchik

Today started out strong and quickly broke through that 885 level that I have been pointing to. Once it rested, it took a run at 900, and came off that high at mid day. At about 1:15PM today I sent out this e-mail to the folks who subscribed to my blog:

“We opened the day on a very strong note, and we broke through the 885 level on the Cash S&P. This is a important level for the up trend to continue. During the course of the day we may retest that level. However it is more likely to take another run at the 900 level today. There is a good amount of resistance at that level, but if we break through 900, and hold on a retest, The Cash S&P should start towards 910 as the next objective. Happy trading,”

The market did make the run to 900 again and after trading in a very narrow range until the last 10 minutes of the session, popped and ended at 907.24. This is all good, this is all positive.

So where do we go from here. Well the 900 level was an important resistance point, so it would be logical for it to be tested from the other side now. Of course, we want that level to hold on the test. A successful test will raise the probabilities that we will see higher levels on the S&P Cash. The next objective is 910, and we are almost there now. There is also a band of resistance from the 910 level to about the 935 level. So once we get above the 910, the market may loose some of its momentum, but still drift higher. That type of market is a little grinding.

Looking forward with a more intermediate view, once we get above the 935 level, then we can start looking at the next Fibonaci retracement of 1074.That would be a major point, and we would need to see what happens when we get there before more can be said about the rally going higher. Happy Trading.

By the way, if you like my commentary, leave your name and e-mail at the right, and I will be able to send you any important updates during the day. Also, I would love it if you leave a comment about the Art Gallery, or the other pages of my blog. Thank you. – John

By John Pisanchik
Today in the S&P Cash, we were range bound with the high of 880.48, a low of 866.10 and a close of 877.52. The market is still struggling and really made very little progress these last 2 days. This type of market action may persist early in the coming week. That means that it will probably be staying close to the highs and lows we have seen today and yesterday. Until we decisively break the 885 level to the upside and hold it, or break the 660 level to the downside and hold it, we can look forward to a short term trendless range. The support and resistance levels I have identified in yesterdays analysis still pertain to today’s analysis. Have a great week end.

By the way, If you like my blog, leave a comment, I would love it. Also, if you leave your name and e-mail address, I can let you know if there are any new developments. Regards, John Pisanchik