Friday, May 29th, 2009 at
8:09 am
By John Pisanchik
The S&P Cash continues to churn around with no real progress one way or the other. The 9 and 20 moving averages are giving support to the market right now. The daily trading range for the last 6 trading days have been on either side of those 2 moving averages. Friday’s market should be more of the same, with short term traders squaring up in front of the weekend. Expect more of the same choppiness today, with paying attention to the 9 and 20 day moving averages. Happy trading.
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Thursday, May 28th, 2009 at
12:36 pm
By John Pisanchik
The S&P Cash stayed within the range and was a bit choppy. The bottom end of the range held in and the daily chart is starting to look a bit better. It will still remain a bit choppy but should drift higher. It will stay this way until we break out of the range one way or the other. The important thing is that it has been getting support at the right place, so the rally may not be over, just a little market churning. Happy Trading.
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Wednesday, May 27th, 2009 at
7:30 am
John Pisanchik
The market opened strong and held it’s gains nicely. It closed on Friday right on the bottom of the trading range and this action is very positive. However, we are still in that overall trading range of 885 on the bottom and 935 on the top. Getting support at the level we were at means the market is not taking this lower for now. Today we may get some follow through. The Cash S&P closed at 910.33 and we have that envelope of resistance between 910 and 935. So if the trading range will be holding in today, expect a choppy session. There is nothing going on that would make me think that we will break out of this range today. So my expectation is a choppy session to possibly higher, but within the range. Happy Trading.
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Saturday, May 23rd, 2009 at
5:27 pm
By John Pisanchik
This weeks market has been in a trading range for 3 weeks now. The S&P Cash index opened on Monday at 886.07, had a high of 924.60, a low of 879.61 and closed at 887.00 The range was similar last week and 2 weeks prior. Early in the week I said we were in a range with the 885 at the bottom side and 935 on top. Until we break through that the trend will remain sideways.
However, having said that, the daily chart is starting to look weaker than it did earlier in the week. It has gone through a double top, the first high being May 7 and 8, and the test on May 20. I think this is significant, especially if the 885 level does not hold on Tuesday of next week (Monday is a holiday.) We need to pay attention to what Asia and Europe do to the futures contract on Monday morning. With the US out, the market will be thin and is susceptible to volatile moves. This could be the opportunity for the market to take things lower. I will probably write up a special note here on Monday if Asia and Europe do anythng important. Enjoy the holiday.
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Tuesday, May 19th, 2009 at
5:24 pm
By John Pisanchik
Today lacked follow through on yesterdays rally. But an important point is that the S&P Cash Index held its ground and did not fall back to 885. It did however meet that wall of resistance that starts at 910 and goes to about 935. So we get back to what I was saying 2 weeks ago, in order for this rally to continue, we must break through this wall. It is holding in well so far. The problem is that the longer this wall holds the market back, the more probable a change in trend can occur.
Tomorrow, expect choppiness again. At this point, we are in a short term trading range, with 885 on the bottom and 930 on the top. Until we break through the top or the bottom, you will see volitility but no real market gain or loss. Happy trading.
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Tuesday, May 19th, 2009 at
7:50 am
By John Pisanchik
Today’s session was extremely positive. We opened at 886.07 in the S&P Cash and moved higher straight away. The powerful support level at 885 held and even the 900 level did not hold the rally back. We closed at 909.71, which puts the index just below that band of resistance again which is 910 to 935. Expect a choppy market since resistance can come in at any place within that range. However, since the market did find support where it should have, and volume was decreasing on the way down last week, the market is poised for a rally. Don’t be surprised if today continues yesterday’s rally. In a perfect world, I would like to see the index close above the 925 level today. This band of resistance will add a layer of randomness. Happy trading.
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Friday, May 15th, 2009 at
3:39 pm
By John Pisanchik
This week ended on a choppy and somewhat weak note. The 885 area did provide some level of support both yesterday and today. The market was trading on either side of it today until later in the day, where we saw a low of 878.94 in the S&P Cash. However, at that point, the market did not stage a further decline, it actually traded back towards the 885 level, to close at 882.88.
So where do we go from here. If the market is truly going lower, then it will need to trade lower from the start of next week. The truth is, that since it is so close to the 885 level, it could easily rally above it and just chop around. But if we get a lower low and a lower close on Monday, then that opens the door for momentum to build on the downside. If we do start to trade lower, the next support level to watch is 865. After that is a range of 850 to 855. A close below 850 in the short term would be very bearish and at that point we can start to project where the short term and intermediate term objectives may be. Happy trading and have a great weekend.
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Wednesday, May 13th, 2009 at
9:13 pm
By John Pisanchik
The market traded lower today, broke below 900 and could not get back above it. It then drifted lower and broke the all important 885 level in the S&P Cash to close at 883.92. I have been saying that a test of the 885 is ok, but the market needs to rally back quickly. If not, I believe the door is open for a sizable move lower. So tomorrow, look for the market to try to go higher. This could happen in Asia and Europe overnight in the contract. If it gets above 885 and holds, then that would be an important indicator. If however the market stays below 885, it should start to trade lower. Key support points to watch would be the 855 level, then 835. Happy Trading.
Tuesday, May 12th, 2009 at
6:15 pm
By John Pisanchik The market opened at 910.52 on the S&P Cash, traded down and tested the 900 level, with an actual low of 896.46. When the market got there, it looks like it went quite. This tells me that there is not that much of a following to the downside. Price action narrowed up and it slowly started to drift upwards. Once it came back over 900, it looks like some decent price spread started to occur, and it traded back over 910 for a bit and settled at 908.35. This market was choppy as I said it might be in yesterday’s commentary. But what is really interesting is what happened to the price action once it got to the 900 level and just below that. The price action narrowed, which really means that the selling stopped. So the next logical movement is up, which it did starting around 1:30PM. So what do we expect tomorrow? Probably a bit of the same, a choppy session. Today showed no real conviction to run the market down, but the band of resistance between 910 to 935 needs to work itself out, so watch for the chop. Happy Trading. 
Monday, May 11th, 2009 at
8:38 pm
By John Pisanchik
The market opened today on a weak note and by 11:10 AM set the range for the day. The band of resistance I have been talking about is in full force at this point. Unless we get through the 935 level on the upside and hold it on any test, the market is likely to just chop around here and could possibly head lower. The 900 level would be an important support point, but if weakness does prevail, we could even trade to the 885 level. Be prepared for some choppy trading over the next few days.
